区间非概率可靠性方法在岩溶区稳定性分析中的适用性研究

区间非概率可靠性方法的设计思想有时可能会过于保守而出现无谓增加工程造价的情况，从而导致区间非概率可靠性方法的适用性存在问题。为此，引入概率理论和蒙特卡洛法，得到区间非概率可靠性方法适用性评价指标，从而建立出区间非概率可靠性方法适用性的研究方法。结合实际工程，探讨区间非概率可靠性方法在岩溶区稳定性分析中是否会出现适用性问题，并研究具有区间不确定性的自变量变化幅度、自变量个数以及函数类型对区间非概率可靠性方法适用性的影响规律。研究表明，当自变量的变化幅度较大且自变量个数较多时，区间非概可靠性方法的适用性存在明显不足，相关研究结论能够为区间非概率可靠性方法的应用提供参考。

Applicability of interval non-probabilistic reliability method in analyzing the stability of karst area

The interval non-probabilistic reliability analysis method may lead to conservative design under some conditions, and increase the project cost. To resolve the issue related to the applicability of interval non-probabilistic reliability method, the probability theory and Monte Carlo method are introduced, and the evaluation index for applicability is determined. Then the study method is proposed for application of the interval non-probabilistic reliability analysis method. Based on the analysis of practical problems, the applicability problem of interval non-probabilistic reliability analysis method is discussed, and the applicability of interval non-probabilistic reliability analysis method is investigated for different changing ranges of interval independent variables, number of interval independent variables and function types. The results show that when the changing range is relatively large and the number of interval independent variables is large, the applicability for interval non-probabilistic reliability analysis method is lacking. This study can provide a reference for the application of interval non-probabilistic reliability analysis methods.