1604年泉州海外大地震及其海啸影响分析

由于史料记载的模糊和局限性,1604年泉州海外8级大地震是否引发地震海啸灾难,一直是有争议的。该文从这次地震历史资料的辨别、考证和分析研究认为,泉州海外大地震并未引发地震海啸产生的显著灾害。在相关的史料与台湾海峡发震构造的分析基础上,通过潜在海啸源的鉴别以及海啸源参数的确定,对泉州滨海断裂和台湾海峡浅滩南缘海啸源进行数值模拟计算。在计算过程中,利用了1994年台湾海峡浅滩南缘地震的海啸波验潮站资料,对计算模型和方法进行了检验。1604年泉州海外大地震的潜在海啸源(滨海断裂)的数值计算结果表明,海啸波对泉州湾沿岸的增减水效应不足以造成灾难性的影响,因此也为1604年泉州海外大地震未引发灾难性的海啸提供了新的证据。

Analysis of the 1604 Quanzhou offshore earthquake-tsunami effects

Whether the 1604 Quanzhou offshore earthquake generated tsunami is a contentious problem.Through the textual research and analysis of historic earthquake records,we conclude that Quanzhou offshore large earthquake did not cause obvious tsunami disaster.By analyzing related historic material and Taiwan Strait seismic structure,we determine the potential earthquake-tsunami source zones and their parameters,and make numerical simulation on the earthquake-tsunami source zones of Quanzhou offshore and Taiwan Strait southern shoal.In the numerical simulation process,we use the tsunami wave data of the 1994 Taiwan Strait earthquake to test the reliability of numerical model and routine.Based on Quanzhou offshore earthquake-tsunami zone and its parameters,the numerical simulation results show that the increase or decrease of water in Quanzhou bay induced by earthquake-tsunami waves cannot produce hazard effects.Our research supplies new evidence supporting that there was no tsunami hazard of the 1604 Quanzhou offshore large earthquake.