由地壳的相对运动估计1967年炉霍地震后该地区的地震趋势

1967年8月30日,曾在我国四川省甘孜藏族自治州炉霍县境内,发生了一次M=6.8级地震.震中位置是北纬31°.6,东经100°.3。地震发生后,立即进行了现场考察,对该地区的地震发展趋势作出了估计。当时若根据康定一甘孜断裂带所作的蠕变曲线估计,则该地区地震能量已基本释放完毕(图

ESTIMATION OF EARTHQUAKE TENDENCY AFTER THE 1967 EARTHQUAKE OF LUHO DISTRICT BY RELATIVE MOTION OF THE EARTH CRUST

On the basis of an assumption that the long-term average of E release should be equal to that of its accumulation, we made, an estimate of the earthquake tendency in Luho District after the 1967 earthquake. It was pointed out that the district had accumulated enough energy so that the occurrence of yet a bigger shock would be forthcoming. Such an earthquake actually occurred recently with M=7.9. Based on the same assumption, we predict that this district will be relatively quiet for a long time to come, and that the next shock of comparable magnitude will not recur until some 250 years hereafter.