宁镇地区地质灾害预报模型——以镇江润州区为例

宁镇地区是长江中下游地质灾害最严重的地区之一。镇江润州区虽然仅是宁镇地区的一个局部区域，但其气候和地质环境特征具有典型意义，所提出的地质灾害气象预警预报模型同样适用于整个宁镇地区，对长江中下游地区亦有借鉴作用。气候环境、降雨尤其是连续降雨或强降雨是诱发地质灾害的重要因素。润州区地质灾害主要与梅雨期总降雨量有关，其次与台汛期台风带来的降雨量有关，而与台汛期总降雨量无关。地质灾害预测预警方程应针对不同时期采用不同的预警模型：非梅雨期的预警方程采用预报日降雨量结合前5日降水之和的综合模型，梅雨期的预警方程采用梅雨期降雨总量模型。提出地质灾害气象预报预警等级应根据《国家突发公共事件总体应急预案》将等级统一划分为4级。该模型可作为完善我国现有地质灾害气象预警预报系统的参考。

A forecasting model of geological hazards in Nanjing-Zhenjiang area: A case study of the Runzhou District in Zhenjiang City

The Nanjing-Zhenjiang area has undergone one of the most serious geological hazards in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. As a part of the Nanjing-Zhenjiang area, Runzhou District shows typical climate and geological environment characteristics. Thus, the proposed meteorological warning and forecasting model of geological hazards in this work is applicable to the whole area and can be used for reference in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Climate, environment, rainfall, especially continuous or heavy rainfall are important factors to induce geological hazards. Geological hazards in the Runzhou District are mainly related to the total rainfall during the Meiyu period, followed by the rainfall caused by typhoons during flood season, but not related to total rainfall during typhoon flood season. The equation for the prediction and warning of geological hazards should correspond to different periods. The early warning equation of non-Meiyu period should adopt the comprehensive forecast model of target day rainfall combined with the sum of precipitation of the previous five days, and that of Meiyu period should adopt the total rainfall model of Meiyu period. It is proposed that the level of meteorological forecast and early warning of geological hazards should be divided into four levels according to The National Response Plan for Public Emergencies. This model also provides reference for improving the existing meteorological warning and forecasting system of geological hazards in China.