广西甘蔗主产区产量灾损风险评估

根据风险分析原理,利用1978-2009年广西甘蔗产量资料,采用减产率、变异系数、灾损减产风险指数等指标,对广西甘蔗主产区产量灾损风险水平进行评估。结果表明,广西甘蔗主产区气象产量历年平均减产率0-25%,以轻度减产年型（减产率5%-10%）居多,且呈现一定的连片性;减产率变异系数0.75-4.00,崇左市和南宁市部分县区在1.00以下,说明这些地区甘蔗受气象灾害影响造成的大减产年份少;灾损减产风险指数0-0.48,按主产区各地市灾损减产风险指数从小到大排列,防城港市〈崇左市〈南宁市〈钦州市〈来宾市〈贵港市。综合考虑干旱、低温霜冻等气象灾害影响,气象灾害引起甘蔗产量波动风险程度以贵港市的最大,防城港市的最小。研究结果可为广西甘蔗稳产高产制定防灾减灾措施、农业保险制度推行等提供基础理论依据。

Risk assessment of sugarcane yield loss in main planting areas of Guangxi

Based on the data of sugarcane production in Guangxi from 1978 to 2009, according to the principle of risk analysis, the risk level of sugarcane yield loss in main planting areas in Guangxi was assessed by the indices of the production rate, variation coefficient and damage reduction of risk indicators. The results show that, in the main sugarcane producing areas of Guangxi, average production loss rate of meteorological yield is 0 - 25%, with mild type being most part（5% - 5%） which present continuous; the coefficient variation is between 0.75 and 4.00, which below1.00 distribute in some counties of Chongzuo and Nanning, these illustrate the heavy production loss year of in the following areas caused by meteorological disasters is few. Risk index of production loss is 0 - 0.48. The risk index arranged by value, which order is Fangchenggang〈 Chongzuo 〈Nanning 〈Qinzhou 〈Laibin〈 Guigang Comprehensive consideration of meteorological disasters such as drought and frost, sugarcane yield fluctuation of risk caused by meteorological disasters is the largest in Guigang city and smallest in Fangchenggang.