Sea-Ice Freeze-up Forecasts with an Operational Ocean Observatory |
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Authors: | James M Hamilton Merle D Pittman |
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Institution: | 1. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, CanadaJames.Hamilton@dfo-mpo.gc.ca;3. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada |
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Abstract: | ABSTRACTThe evaluation of a new method for forecasting freeze-up at the eastern end of the Northwest Passage, a principal gateway into the Canadian High Arctic, is presented. The technique uses real-time data from a novel ocean observatory that combines acoustic, cable, and satellite communications technology to provide year-round bihourly data. The basis for the predictive capability comes from a previous analysis of a decade-long time series of instrumented mooring data collected in the area, which demonstrated a strong link between late summer upper ocean salinity and the timing of freeze-up there. Using real-time data from the observatory and this previously established relationship, accurate predictions of the timing of freeze-up in 2012 and 2013 with lead times of four weeks and two weeks, respectively, are presented. This unique forecasting capability points to the enhanced value of real-time data systems when these systems are located where previously collected long time series monitoring has revealed key relationships in the marine environment. |
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Keywords: | sea ice ocean observatory forecasting freeze-up interannual variability |
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