气候变化对澜沧江下游梯级电站发电及生态调度的影响

近年来伴随气候变化地表径流呈极端化分布，为水电生态调度带来了挑战。为探究气候变化对电站发电和生态调度的影响、发电和生态目标间协调关系对气候变化的响应，以澜沧江下游梯级电站为例，结合多模式多情景未来径流预估结果及水库发电调度模型，针对发电及生态效益目标实施了单/多目标最优化。结果表明：在气候变化影响下，未来澜沧江径流总量将有所增加，水文变率将显著增强，河道生态所受影响也将增大；电站发电保证率及生态流量破坏率指标受不同调度方案的影响程度较气候变化影响更高，未来发电和生态效益的冲突依然存在；气候变化导致的水文变率增强可加剧发电与生态效益间的冲突，导致保持现有发电效益的同时增大对河道生态的影响。

Hydropower generation and ecological operation under climate change: a case study of the downstream cascade of Lancang River hydropower plants

Climate change has intensified the conflict between economic and ecological water demands,and brought challenges to the ecological operation of hydropower plants. This study examined the effect of climate change on hydropower generation and ecological operation of hydropower plants,and investigated the response of the interactions between power generation and ecological water demand to climate change. The hydropower operation model and the future streamflow projections modeled by climate projections of several global climate models are used. The downstream cascade of Lancang River hydropower plants was used as a case study. Results show that the overall streamflow and hydrological variability were predicted to increase under climate change,and the ecological flow destruction rate was also predicted to increase. The benefit of hydropower generation and its ecological effects varied more among different operational schemes than among different climate change scenarios,indicating that future conflicts between hydropower generation and ecological water demand are largely inevitable. The increase in hydrological variability caused by climate change can exacerbate the conflict between hydropower generation and ecological water demand,causing larger costs of ecological degradation when retaining the current hydropower benefits.