Structure and evolution of the backstop in the eastern Nankai Trough area (Japan): Implications for the soon-to-come Tokai earthquake

Abstract We present data showing that the intra-oceanic shortening now occurring south of the eastern Nankai Trough that has produced the Zenisu Ridge has also been responsible for the formation of a previous ridge now buried below the continental margin. This ridge, that we refer to as Paleo-Zenisu, is presently adjacent to the backstop and its location coincides with the outer limit of the seismogenic decollement. The subduction of the paleo-Zenisu ridge below the wedge has led to its complete reorganization and has given its identity to the Great Tokai earthquake rupture zone. The formation of paleo-Zenisu and its consequent subduction has induced the tilting of the backstop toward the northwest since ca 2 Ma. This model suggests that the backstop and possibly the wedge are dextrally sheared because they are extruded southwestward in relation to the collision of the Izu-Bonin Ridge with Japan. We use the finite motion from Zenisu to paleo-Zenisu to derive both the subduction vectors along the Nankai Trough and the shortening vectors within Zenisu-Izu. The amount of shortening absorbed within Zenisu-Izu increases toward the northeast. The corresponding subduction vectors of the Zenisu platelet below the wedge decrease accordingly to the northeast from 50 to less than 20 mm/year and the Zenisu body rotates clockwise with a pole near 36° North, 139° East. This might explain the apparent longer repetition time of great earthquakes in the Tokai area. On the other hand, the 25-35 mm/year obtained for the rate of shortening along the Zenisu thrust indicates a high seismic potential there.