基于事件数据的南海周边主要国家地缘关系演化分析

结合研究期内热点地缘事件,利用GDELT数据库中新闻事件数、平均语调值及戈登斯坦分值分析南海周边主要国家地缘关系时序演化,并根据合作和冲突事件探讨地缘关系网络结构特征。结果表明：1）1997—2020年,美国提出“重返亚太”和“南海仲裁案”的结束成为整个时期内的两大标志性事件,分别以2009和2016年为时间节点,将南海周边主要国家地缘关系划分为特征差异显著的3个阶段。2）在第一阶段（1997—2008年）,各国保持稳定关注,和平发展成为主旋律,地缘关系相对缓和平稳;到第二阶段（2009—2015年）,稳定与不安因素此消彼长,地缘关系动荡,消极态势初显;进入第三阶段（2016—2020年）,各国间仍保持高位关注,但争端对抗充斥不断,地缘关系亟需维护缓和。3）中国在前个两阶段主要扮演合作与冲突事件接受国角色,从第三阶段起发起的合作事件明显增多,节点加权出入度显著增大;而中国、美国、越南和菲律宾在网络结构中相对活跃,尤其在冲突平均网络中经历了“中―美―越”到“中―菲―美―越”再到“中―菲―美”小团体组合过程;印度尼西亚和马来西亚在区域中与他国联系有所下降;文莱以接受合作或冲突事件为主,与他国地缘关系稳定。

Evolution of the Geo-Relations between Major Countries around the South China Sea Based on Event Data Analysis

At present, the Sino-US strategic game, the dispute over national sovereignty and demarcation between China and the South China Sea, and the competition for regional maritime order are intertwined, resulting in complex geo-relations in the South China Sea. Combined with hot geopolitical events during the study period, the number of news events and the Avg Tone and Goldstein Score in the GDELT database were used to depict the evolution of the geopolitical characteristics of major countries around the South China Sea and visualize the evolution of the geopolitical network structure of the study area according to events of cooperation and conflict. The following results were found: 1) During the period from 1997 to 2020, the Pivoting to the Asia-Pacific proposed by the United States and the end of the South China Sea Arbitration Case became two landmark events in the whole period, taking 2009 and 2016 as the time node, the geo-relations of the major countries around the South China Sea are divided into three stages with significant differences in characteristics. 2) In the first stage, countries maintained stable concerns, peaceful development became the main theme, and geo-relations were relatively relaxed and stable. Subsequently, the factors of stability and uneasiness changed. Geo-relations became turbulent, and a negative trend was observed. In the third stage, the relationship between countries maintained a high level of concern; however, disputes and confrontations were rife, and geo-relations urgently needed to be maintained and eased. 3) China mainly played the role of the recipient of cooperation and conflict events in the first two stages. Since the third stage, the number of cooperation events increased significantly, and the node weighted in-out degree increased significantly. In addition, China, the United States, Vietnam, and the Philippines are relatively active in the network structure, especially in the conflict-average network that has experienced the China-US-Vietnam to China-Philippines-US-Vietnam to China-Philippines-US small group combination process. Indonesia and Malaysia have declined regional ties with other countries, and Brunei has mainly accepted cooperation or conflict events, and its geo-relations with other countries are stable. Therefore, China should focus on two main points to deal with changes in the situation in the South China Sea. First, they should accelerate the construction of a maritime power, enhance maritime power, enhance China's ability to safeguard rights and maintain stability in the South China Sea, use strong deterrents to contain US deployment in the South China Sea, and alleviate military and security pressure on China posed by the United States in the South China Sea. The second is to actively promote maritime cooperation in the South China Sea, ensure the stable development of China's comprehensive strategic partnership with the Philippines, Vietnam, and other ASEAN countries, and use friendly cooperation to hedge unilateral action.