ENSO impacts on salinity in Tampa Bay, Florida

Estuarine salinity distributions reflect a dynamic balance between the processes that control estuarine circulation. At seasonal and longer time scales, freshwater inputs into estuaries represent the primary control on salinity distribution and estuarine circulation. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions influence seasonal rainfall and stream discharge patterns in the Tampa Bay, Florida region. The resulting variability in freshwater input to Tampa Bay influences its seasonal salinity distribution. During El Niño events, ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are significantly and inversely correlated with salinity in the bay during winter and spring. These patterns reflect the elevated rainfall over the drainage basin and the resulting elevated stream discharge and runoff, which depress salinity levels. Spatially, the correlations are strongest at the head of the bay, especially in bay sections with long residence times. During La Niña conditions, significant inverse correlations between ENSO SSTAs and salinity occur during spring. Dry conditions and depressed stream discharge characterize La Niña winters and springs, and the higher salinity levels during La Niña springs reflect the lower freshwater input levels.