Historical seismicity, palaeoseismicity and seismic risk in Western Macedonia, Northern Greece

Western Macedonia, Northern Greece, was a seismically quiescent region for one or more centuries, and was regarded as a nearly aseismic, rigid block inside a broad zone of distributed continental deformation and faulting, and a region of minimum seismic risk. Consequently, the May 13, 1995 destructive earthquake (M = 6.6) which hit this assumed aseismic zone was a surprise for scientists, government and population.However, historical and archaeoseismic evidence, as well as coastal change data indicate that the assumed aseismic region of Western Macedonia has been affected in the last 2,000 years by at least seven, and possibly nine destructive earthquakes. One of these earthquakes occurred in circa 1700, and probably had the same epicentre with, but higher magnitude than the 1995 shock.The earthquake in circa 1700 is deduced from historical data and is modelled on the base of a swarm of church repairs which is explained as post-seismic recovery of the broader Kozani area: except for certain well known cases of towns or areas in which religious privileges were granted, large scale repairs or reconstruction of churches during the Ottoman period were possible only after Sultan's permissions, usually following earthquakes and other calamities.It can hence be concluded that some, at least, of the apparently aseismic regions inside broad zones of distributed seismicity are hit by stronger shocks, but with longer (200 years or more) recurrence intervals than their adjacent zones. Consequently, the seismic risk of the apparently aseismic regions is certainly not low, especially since relatively long periods of seismic quiescence lead to constructions vulnerable to earthquakes.