| 热带气旋生成指数对印度洋热带气旋频数变化的适用性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘春雷,冯小丽,顾剑峰,廖晓晴,曹宁,徐建军,徐峰,张宇. 热带气旋生成指数对印度洋热带气旋频数变化的适用性研究[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 2020, 12(4): 431-441 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘春雷 冯小丽 顾剑峰 廖晓晴 曹宁 徐建军 徐峰 张宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室, 湛江, 524000;广东海洋大学, 南海海洋气象研究院, 湛江, 524088;雷丁大学 气象系, Reading RG6 6BB, UK,广东海洋大学, 南海海洋气象研究院, 湛江, 524088,雷丁大学 气象系, Reading RG6 6BB, UK,广东海洋大学, 南海海洋气象研究院, 湛江, 524088,南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室, 湛江, 524000;广东海洋大学, 南海海洋气象研究院, 湛江, 524088,南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室, 湛江, 524000;广东海洋大学, 南海海洋气象研究院, 湛江, 524088,广东海洋大学, 南海海洋气象研究院, 湛江, 524088,南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室, 湛江, 524000;广东海洋大学, 南海海洋气象研究院, 湛江, 524088 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（XDA20060503）;南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（湛江）项目（ZJW-2019-08）;广东海洋大学科研启动基金（R20001）;广东海洋大学"创新强校"项目（230419053）;广东海洋大学"冲一流"学科建设科研项目（平台）（231419022）;中央财政支持地方高校发展专项资金（000041） |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用ERA5 1979-2019年逐月大气再分析资料计算南北印度洋热带气旋生成指数,并和IBTrACS观测数据进行比较,探讨用热带气旋生成指数研究南北印度洋热带气旋变化特征的适用性.研究发现热带气旋生成指数能较好地刻画南北印度洋热带气旋的空间分布特征、北印度洋热带气旋个数月变化的双峰结构,以及南印度洋比北印度洋热带气旋发生概率高等特征.最新的IBTrACS v4.0观测资料显示,40年来北印度洋热带气旋每年总生成个数平均每10年增加1.3个,频数的增加主要来源于热带低压和热带风暴,而南印度洋热带气旋每年总生成个数每10年减少2.8个.热带气旋生成指数能很好地描述北印度洋热带气旋生成个数的上升趋势,但对南印度洋热带气旋生成个数趋势的刻画与观测不一致,可能原因需要进一步深入研究.
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| 关 键 词： | 印度洋 热带气旋 生成指数 变化特征 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-06-01 |
Applicability of the tropical cyclone genesis potential index to the frequency variability of tropical cyclone in Indian Ocean |
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| LIU Chunlei,FENG Xiaoli,GU Jianfeng,LIAO Xiaoqing,CAO Ning,XU Jianjun,XU Feng and ZHANG Yu. Applicability of the tropical cyclone genesis potential index to the frequency variability of tropical cyclone in Indian Ocean[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 2020, 12(4): 431-441 |
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| Authors: | LIU Chunlei FENG Xiaoli GU Jianfeng LIAO Xiaoqing CAO Ning XU Jianjun XU Feng ZHANG Yu |
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| Affiliation: | Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhanjiang), Zhanjiang 524000;South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088;Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK,South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088,Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK,South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088,Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhanjiang), Zhanjiang 524000;South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088,Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhanjiang), Zhanjiang 524000;South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088,South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088 and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhanjiang), Zhanjiang 524000;South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088 |
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| Abstract: | The genesis potential index of the tropical cyclones in North and South Indian Oceans is calculated using monthly ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979-2019,and compared with the IBTrACS observations,in order to investigate the applicability of the genesis potential index to the study of the tropical cyclone characteristics in North and South Indian Oceans.It is found that the tropical cyclone genesis potential index can characterize the spatial distribution of tropical cyclones in North and South Indian Oceans,the bimodal structure of the seasonal variations of tropical cyclone frequency in North Indian Ocean,and the higher probability of tropical cyclone genesis in the South Indian Ocean than that in the North Indian Ocean.The latest IBTrACS v4.0 observations show that the annual number of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean has increased by an average of 1.3 per decade over the past 40 years,which is mainly from the tropical depressions and tropical storms,while the annual number of tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean has decreased by an average of 2.8 per decade.The genesis potential index of the tropical cyclone can well describe the upward trend of the tropical cyclone number in North Indian Ocean,but the depiction of the trend of the tropical cyclone number in South Indian Ocean is inconsistent with observations,which merits further investigation in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis potential index change characteristics |
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