全球碳酸锂贸易格局与供应危机传播研究

随着新能源产业的快速发展, 全球碳酸锂贸易量逐渐增长, 但其出口集中于少数国家, 这意味着全球碳酸锂供应存在一定的风险。为了深入了解全球碳酸锂贸易格局演变、供应危机传播路径及影响, 本文构建了2000—2021年全球碳酸锂贸易网络和级联失效模型, 概述了主要出口国贸易流向和贸易格局演变过程, 并模拟了不同供应危机来源的雪崩规模、传播路径及其影响。我们得到: (1)20多年来全球碳酸锂贸易集中度逐渐增加, 出口前三位国家保持稳定, 而主要进口大国变化明显, 贸易格局已由南美供应全球转变为南美供应东亚; (2)碳酸锂贸易供应危机的影响范围逐渐扩大, 间接传播逐渐占据主导地位; (3)智利供应危机对中日韩的影响程度逐渐扩大, 但对欧洲的影响时间最长; 阿根廷和中国的雪崩规模在上升、传播次数增加, 而美国则相反。本文将贸易格局演变与危机传播结合, 明确了全球碳酸锂主要贸易国智利、阿根廷、中国、德国等作为供应危机来源的影响程度及其传播路径。以上分析结果将有利于维护全球碳酸锂贸易稳定和主要贸易国采取应对策略缓解供应危机。

Global Lithium Carbonate Trade Pattern and Spread of Supply Crisis

With the rapid development of the new energy industry, the global lithium carbonate trade volume has gradually increased, but lithium exports are concentrated in a few countries, which means that certain risks exist in the global lithium carbonate supply. To deeply understand the evolution of the global lithium carbonate trade pattern and the transmission path of its supply crisis, we constructed a global lithium carbonate trade network and cascading failure model from 2000 to 2021, outlined the trade flow of major exporters and the evolution of their trade patterns, and simulated the avalanche scale, propagation path, and impact of different supply crisis sources. We found that: (1) The global lithium carbonate trade concentration has gradually increased over the past 20 years, the top three exporting countries have remained stable, the top importing countries have substantially changed, and the trade pattern has shifted from South America supplying the world to South America supplying East Asia. (2) The impact of the lithium carbonate trade supply crisis has gradually expanded, which has gradually become dominated by indirect transmission. (3) The impact of the supply crisis in Chile has gradually expanded to China, Japan, and South Korea, but it has had the strongest impact on Europe. Avalanche frequency in Argentina and China is increasing, as are their transmission times, while the opposite has been occurring in the United States of America. We combined the evolution of the trade pattern with the spread of the crisis and clarified the degree of influence and transmission path of the main global lithium carbonate trading countries: Chile, Argentina, China, Germany, etc., as the sources of the supply crisis. The above results can be applied to help maintain the stability of global lithium carbonate trade and help major trading countries to adopt corresponding measures to alleviate the supply crisis.