Mixing of groundwaters with uncertain end-members: case study in the Tepalcingo-Axochiapan aquifer, Mexico

Groundwater geochemical data from the northern portion of the Tepalcingo-Axochiapan Valley, in the state of Morelos, Mexico, are analyzed to improve the conceptual hydrogeologic model of the region. The geochemical data suggest that the chemical composition of groundwater is the result of a mixing process between two end-members represented by groundwater from an upper aquifer composed of volcanic-sedimentary rocks and groundwater from a lower aquifer composed of carbonate rocks. Analysis of published data demonstrates that the chemical composition of at least one of the end-members varies significantly in time. Mixing ratios are computed, taking into account the uncertainty in identifying end-members and the time variability in their chemical composition, using published methods. Computed mixing ratios suggest there is a significant contribution from the lower aquifer to the water pumped by the wells in the area, which should be taken into account in the conceptual hydrogeologic model of the region.