港珠澳大桥的客流车流量预测与功能定位

概述了港珠澳大桥的7个主要方案及分歧,把产生分歧的原因归结为大桥功能定位的差异.通过对1999～2002年往返香港至珠三角的过境客流和车流数据作定量分析,获得未来往返两地的过境客流和车流趋势预测数据,再结合珠三角以及珠三角各部分的经济发展状况得出港珠澳大桥的客流量和车流量的预测数据.根据港珠澳大桥的客流量和车流量预测结果和区域基础设施协调和发展规划理论,认为大桥的功能定位应为客、货运兼备;宜建设铁路、公路两用桥.

A FORECAST OF PASSENGER AND VEHICLE FLOWS AND FUNCTION ORIENTATION OF THE HONG KONG-ZHUHAI-MACAO BRIDGE

A brief introduction is made to the seven main plans for the construction of the bridge. It is considered that the difference of the plans is caused by different functional orientations. The passenger and vehicle flows of the bridge are forecasted with regressive method, in which the data from 1992 to 2002 are used, and an analysis of the economic conditions of the Zhujiang Delta region is combined. According to the forecasted volumes and the coordinated infrastructure planning of the region, the function orientation of the bridge should be a passenger-cargo bridge where there are both railway and highway.