2018年我国灾害性天气及决策气象服务分析

灾害性天气的总结是研究其形成机理和变化规律的基础，也是提高预报预测准确率的有效途径，而决策气象服务是围绕天气变化进行的一项有中国特色的特殊服务，是政府部门科学决策的依据，工作对象的特殊性决定了天气预报预测能力需要不断提升和增强，决策气象服务技术需要不断改进和创新。通过对2018年全国灾害性天气特征和决策气象服务工作进行归纳、分析，并结合业务实际和未来发展，探讨性地提出改进措施，旨在建立灾害性天气和决策气象服务的内在联系，增强业务人员对天气变化规律的认知和对决策气象服务的深度理解，以预报发展推动服务水平提升，以服务需求促进预报技术提高，从而更好地发挥新形势下的决策参谋作用。

Analysis on disastrous weather and decision-making meteorological service over China in 2018

The summary of disastrous weather is the basis of studying its formation mechanism and change rules and also an effective way to improve the accuracy of forecast and prediction. Decision-making meteorological service is a special service with Chinese characteristics with regard to weather change, which acts as the basis of scientific decision-making of government. The particularity of working object determines that the ability of forecasting needs to be enhanced and the technologies for decision-making meteorological service need improvement and innovation. According to the summary and analysis of the characteristics of disastrous weather and decision-making meteorological service over China in 2018, improvement measures for actual operational work and future development are suggested, aiming at establishing internal relations between disastrous weather and decision-making meteorological service and enhancing personnel''s in-depth understanding in field of meteorological disaster and decision-making meteorological service. The role of decision-making service will be better played under the new situation by improving service with better forecasting skills and developing forecasting techniques according to actual service demands.