| 松花江汛期最高水位预报 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 袁美英,潘华盛,张桂华,董淑华.松花江汛期最高水位预报[J].黑龙江气象,2001(3):9-11,15. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 袁美英 潘华盛 张桂华 董淑华 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 黑龙江省气象中心
2. 黑龙江省水文资源勘测局 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省科委下达“松花江洪水对经济环境影响评估及预防对策研究”课题 (1999～ 2 0 0 0年攻关项目 ) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用人工神经网络和逐步回归方法对松花江汛期最高水位进行模拟，并对1996、1997、1998年的最高水位进行了试报，效果极佳。试报1998年松花江最高水位119．69m，实况120．89m，仅差1．2m；报出大洪水；而且在1999、2000年业务预报中也准确报出松花江出现的枯水位。两种方法可以在实际中推广应用。
|
| 关 键 词： | 人工神经网络 水位预报 逐步回归方法 松花江 汛期 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-252(2001)03-0009-03 |
Study of Forecast the Higher Water Level to Flood Season of the Songhua River |
| |
| YUAN Mei-ying ,PAN Hua-sheng ,ZHANG Gui-hua ,DONG Shu-hua.Study of Forecast the Higher Water Level to Flood Season of the Songhua River[J].Heilongjiang Meteorology,2001(3):9-11,15. |
| |
| Authors: | YUAN Mei-ying PAN Hua-sheng ZHANG Gui-hua DONG Shu-hua |
| |
| Institution: | YUAN Mei-ying 1,PAN Hua-sheng 1,ZHANG Gui-hua 1,DONG Shu-hua 2 |
| |
| Abstract: | Simulate the higher water level of the Songhua River with Artifical Neural Network and successive regression.Experimental forecast 1996?1997?1998year high water level,the are all very well.The Songhua River happened flood that was one beyond a century in 1998 year,experimental forecasting value is 119 69 meter,the fact is 120.89 meter,the balance is only 1.2 meter,so forecasted out the flood water level of 1998 year,and that accurately forecasted low water level of the Songhua River in 1999 and 2000 year forecasting operation.The both method may perfect use in acually working. |
| |
| Keywords: | neunal network water level forecast successive regression |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
