| 地震区划中混合地震模型研究——以祁连山为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 董瑞树,任国强,冉洪流.地震区划中混合地震模型研究——以祁连山为例[J].地震地质,1999,21(1):37-47. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董瑞树 任国强 冉洪流 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地质研究所,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地震局地质研究所项目;99B0003; |
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| 摘 要： | 以祁连山为研究区，以上限震级７．５和８．０的潜源为特征地震段，利用滑动速率法分别计算上述每个潜源中７．０～７．４级，７．５～７．９级地震的复发间隔。特征地震选用ＮＢ模型条件概率和ＮＢ累积概率模型，中强震采用中国地震区划图（１９９０）的分档泊松模型，组成混合地震模型，用中国西部椭圆地震衰减公式，计算了未来５０ａ，超越概率为１０％的地震烈度。计算结果认为累积概率模型当地震离逝时间长而潜源面积小时影响大，面积大的潜源应进一步考虑潜源的稀释问题
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| 关 键 词： | 地震区划 特征地震 地震模型 NB模型累积概率 |
| 修稿时间： | 1997年11月1日 |
STUDY ON THE HYBRID SEISMIC MODEL FOR SEISMIC ZONATION WITH THE EXAMPLE OF QILIAN MOUNTAIN |
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| Dong Reishu,Ren Guoqiang,Ran Hongliu.STUDY ON THE HYBRID SEISMIC MODEL FOR SEISMIC ZONATION WITH THE EXAMPLE OF QILIAN MOUNTAIN[J].Seismology and Geology,1999,21(1):37-47. |
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| Authors: | Dong Reishu Ren Guoqiang Ran Hongliu |
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| Abstract: | For the potential seismic sources of upper bound magnitude 7.5 or 8.0 in study area of Qilianshan, the occurrence intervals of magnitude 7.0～7.4 or 7.5～7.9 are calculated by using the method of slip rate, respectively. The intensity corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are calculated by using elliptical attenuation of earthquake intensity of western China and mixed model, which includes NB conditional probabilistic model and NB cumulative probabilistic model for characteristic earthqua |
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| Keywords: | Seismic regionalization Characteristic earthquake Seismic model NB cumulative probabilistic model |
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