A long-term earthquake forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the period from September 2010 to August 2015 and the reliability of previous forecasts,as well as their applications |
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Authors: | S A Fedotov A V Solomatin S D Chernyshev |
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Institution: | 1.Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Far East Division,Russian Academy of Sciences,Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii,Russia;2.Institute of Physics of the Earth,Russian Academy of Sciences,Moscow,Russia |
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Abstract: | We describe results from the ongoing 2008–2010 work on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc based on
the patterns of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We provide a forecast for the next 5 years, September 2010 to August 2015,
specified for all segments of the earthquake-generating Kuril-Kamchatka arc zone. For 20 segments we predict the phases of
the seismic cycle, the normalized rate of small earthquakes (A10), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes to be expected with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum possible magnitudes,
and the probabilities of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. It is shown that the forecast given for the previous 5 years, from September
2005 to September 2010, was found to be accurate. We report the measures that were taken for seismic safety and retrofitting
based on these forecasts. |
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