TWO-DIMENSIONAL WHOLE CYCLE SIMULATION OF SPONTANE-OUS RUPTURE OF THE 2008 WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE USING THE CONTINUOUS-DISCRETE ELEMENT METHOD

The May 12, 2008 M_S7.9 Wenchuan earthquake is ranked as one of the most devastating natural disasters ever occurred in modern Chinese history. The Longmenshan Fault(LMSF) zone is the seismogenic source structure, which consists of three sub-parallel faults, i.e., the Guanxian-Jiangyou Fault(GJF) in the frontal, the Yingxiu-Beichuan Fault(YBF) in the central fault and the Wenchuan-Maowen Fault(WMF) in the back of the LMSF. In this study, geological survey and seismic profiles are used to constrain the faults geometry and medium parameters. Three visco-elastic finite element models of the LMSF with different main faults are established. From the phase of interseismic stress accumulation to coseismic stress release and postseismic adjustment, the Wenchuan earthquake is simulated using Continuous-Discrete Element Method(CDEM). Modeling results show that before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the GJF becomes unstable due to the interaction between its unique fault geometry and the tectonic stress loading. In the fault geometry model, the GJF is the most gently dipped fault among the three faults, which in return makes it having the smallest normal stress and the greatest shear stress. The continuous shear stress loading finally meets the fault failure criteria and the Wenchuan earthquake starts to initiate on the GJF at the depth of 15~20km. The earthquake rupture then propagated to the YBF. At the same time, due to the GJF and YBF rupture, the interseismic stress accumulation has been greatly reduced, causing the WMF failed to rupture. Although the stress accumulation in the WMF has been reduced significantly after the earthquake, yet it has not been released completely, which means that the WMF likely has with high seismic risk after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. We also find that the stress perturbation caused by gently dipping segment of the fault can promote the passive rupture in the steeply dipping segment, making the upper limit of dip angles larger than traditional assumption.