| 基于AE时间序列的岩爆预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭琦,张茹,谢和平,曲宏略,龙盎. 基于AE时间序列的岩爆预测模型[J]. 岩土力学, 2009, 30(5): 1436-1440 |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭琦 张茹 谢和平 曲宏略 龙盎 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.四川大学 水利水电学院，成都 610065；2.中国长江三峡工程开发总公司，湖北 宜昌 443002 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)，国家自然科学基金创新研究群体基金，国家自然科学基金委雅砻江水电开发联合研究基金重点项目，国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据现场岩爆监测中声发射（AE）时间序列的特点，采用小波神经网络与突变理论，建立了一种新的岩爆预测模型。该模型首先针对监测到的声发射建立小波神经网络模型，对声发射时间序列进行了拟合与预测；再运用突变理论对预测的声发射建立了岩爆突变预测模型。通过实例分析表明，声发射的预测精度较高，岩爆预测结果与现场情况一致，证明了该模型工程实用性较强。
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| 关 键 词： | 岩爆 AE 小波神经网络 突变理论 预测模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-09-10 |
Prediction model for rockburst based on acoustic emission time series |
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| PENG Qi,ZHANG Ru,XIE He-ping,QU Hong-lue,LONG Ang. Prediction model for rockburst based on acoustic emission time series[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2009, 30(5): 1436-1440 |
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| Authors: | PENG Qi ZHANG Ru XIE He-ping QU Hong-lue LONG Ang |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Water Resources and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China; 2. China Three Gorges Project Corporation, Yichang 443002, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the features of acoustic emission(AE) time series monitored for rockburst, adopting the wavelet neural network and catastrophe theory, a new rockburst prediction model is established. Firstly, a wavelet neural network model based on the AE monitored is established to forecast the future AE. Secondly, a catastrophe prediction model for rockburst is founded based on AE forecasted. A practical example shows that the predicted AE time series has high prediction accuracy; and rockburst prediction are consistent with field situation. It is shown that the model has the advantages of high forecasting accuracy and strong practicality. |
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| Keywords: | AE |
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