福建北部持续性暴雨个例分析

分析了福建省南平市2006年最强一次持续性暴雨期间降水强度和降水区域不同的6月6日和7日的天气形势、大气层结和雷达回波特征.结果表明:天气系统经向度越大,天气系统越明显,层结愈不稳定,降水强度越强.在一定的天气背景下,不同来向雷达回波的合并预示有强降水,暖平流的爆发程度和冷空气入侵情况的不同使降水强度也不同.K指数和SI指数与降水强度较为一致,指数绝对值越大,降水越明显.结合单站探空资料和雷达回波可进一步做好精细化预报.

Analysis of Radar Echoes for a Continuous Heavy Rain in Nothern Fujian Province

The atmospheric circulation pattern, atmospheric stability and radar data of a severe continuous rainfall event on 6 and 7 June 2006 in Nanping, Fujian Province are analyzed. The results show that the greater the meridionality of the weather system was, the stronger the weather system was; the greater the instability of the atmosphere, the stronger of the precipitation. Under the control of a certain weather system, the merging of radar echoes from different directions foreshowed strong rains. The differences in the intrusion of cold air and the outburst of warm advection on two days were related with different precipitation intensities. The precipitation amount was well corresponding to K and SI indexes in the two cases. The greater the indexes, the stronger the precipitation. The accuracy of the refined weather forecasting can be improved by use of radiosonde data from single station and radar data.