大量生油门限的统计模型及其在东濮凹陷中的应用

生油门限统计预测模型是估定生油门限的一种方法。Cannan(1974)和于志钧(1981,1983)是以门限地层的年龄值为因变量的回归预测模型。本文从地质角度出发,讨论了该模型的一些不足,以及以门限地层现今温度作为模型因变量的优点。模型的合理性提高之后,其预测精度也得到了显著提高。 模型对东濮凹陷门限参数的预测结果与已知门限参数符合较好,说明东濮凹陷的生油环境与模型的要求基本一致。为此,本文进一步探讨了凹陷南北差异的可能原因,并对北部的T₃和T₆地震反射面的门限参数作了预测。

A STATISTICAL MODEL OF INTENSIVE OIL GENERATION THRESHOLD AND ITS APPLICATION TO DONGPU DEPRESSION

Oil-generative threshold statistical prediction is one of the methods used for estimating the parameter values of the threshold. The statistical model discussed in this paper is designed for estimating oil-generative threshold parameters in the early stages of the exploration of a basin.The model was firstly applied to Dcngpu Depression and the results were adequate. Furthermore, results of the model were used to investigate the differences and similarities between the northern and southern parts of the depression. Since the wells with measurements of threshold parameters are rare, the threshold parameters in the wide region were unknown, the predictive model was applied preliminarily in the northern part of the depression to predict values of threshold parameters of the seismic reflect on surfaces T3 and T6. It is expected that the error of the prediction is large, because the accuracy of the estimated values of age and temperature were rather low. However, in the early stages of exploration, it is necessary and acceptable to make such an estimation. The method outlined in this paper is simple and easy to apply, when compared with the other known methods.