| 地震水化前兆的灰色识别 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯玉勇 王焰新. 地震水化前兆的灰色识别[J]. 工程地质学报, 1998, 6(4): 344-350 |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯玉勇 王焰新 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院地质研究所工程地质力学开放研究实验室,北京100029; |
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| 摘 要： | 本文研究了水化地震前兆的灰色系统识别方法, 并以北京栏杆市热水井H2浓度动态为例建立了GM(1, 1)滑动识别模型。文中提出了动态前兆识别参数M(t)的概念, 认为动态前兆识别参数M(t)比静态识别指标更有效。用这种识别法进行后验性识别, 提前于内蒙丰镇1981年8月13日5.8级地震前15天识别出发震前兆。以唐山地震前后津2热水井CO2前兆异常识别的失败为反例, 分析了失败的原因, 认为对地震平静期的观测研究是进行水化前兆灰色识别的前提。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 GM(1 1)模型 地震前兆 动态前兆识别参数 |
| 收稿时间： | 1997-10-20 |
GREY SYSTEM RECOGNITION OF SEISMOHYDROGEOCHEMICAL PRECURSOR |
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| Feng Yuyong. GREY SYSTEM RECOGNITION OF SEISMOHYDROGEOCHEMICAL PRECURSOR[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 1998, 6(4): 344-350 |
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| Authors: | Feng Yuyong |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;2.China University of Geoscience, Wuhan 430074 |
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| Abstract: | A grey system model, the dynamic model GM(1,1) g model, for recognition of seismogeochemical precursor is studied. Dissolved hydrogen gas dynamic change in Langanshi hot well, Beijing is used in the study here. The seismic precursor was found 15 days before the Fengzhen earthquake, Nei Monggol on August 13, 1981, M s=5.8 ). The concept of recognition index M(t)for the dynamic precursor is firstly suggested in this paper. The index is more effective than the static index in recongniyion of seismic precursor. |
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