Deterministic seismic scenario for Gujarat region, India

In this study, the modified stochastic method based on dynamic corner frequency has been used for the simulation of strong ground motions in Gujarat region. The earthquake-generating faults have been identified in the Gujarat region on the basis of past seismicity of the region. In all, 19 probable faults have been identified with 12 in Kachchh region, 5 in Saurashtra and 2 in Mainland Gujarat region. The maximum magnitude has been assigned to each fault based on the regional tectonic environment and past seismicity. The strong ground motions from these identified sources have been estimated at numerous points distributed all over Gujarat region on a grid. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values have been extracted from the accelerograms and contoured. The spatial distribution of maximum of 19 PGA values at every grid point have been described and discussed. The ground motions at the surface of 32 important cities of the Gujarat have been estimated by incorporating the site amplification functions. The site amplification functions are obtained using the local earthquake data. These cities are located on various types of geological formations. We note that the site amplification functions have modified the character of the records and amplified the acceleration values at almost all the sites. The Kachchh region can expect surface accelerations between 400 and 800 cm/s², Saurashtra between 100 and 200 cm/s² and Mainland less than 50 cm/s² from a future large earthquake. The obtained results are useful for disaster mitigation measures, strengthening the existing built environment and design of structures in the region.