Modeling discharge rating curves with Bayesian B-splines |
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Authors: | Birgir Hrafnkelsson Kristinn M Ingimarsson Sigurdur M Gardarsson Arni Snorrason |
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Institution: | (1) Science Institute, University of Iceland, Dunhagi 5, 107 Reykjavik, Iceland;(2) Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland;(3) Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland;(4) Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland |
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Abstract: | River discharges are traditionally modeled by employing a standard power-law methodology. Recently, the Bayesian approached
has successfully been applied to improve the estimates of the standard power-law. In this article, an extension to the standard
power-law based on Bayesian B-splines is developed and tested on data sets from 61 different rivers. The extended model is
evaluated against the standard power-law using two measures, the Deviance Information Criterion and Bayes factor. The extended
model captures deviations in the data from the standard power-law but reduces to the standard power-law when that model is
adequate. The standard power-law is inadequate for 26% of the rivers while the extended model provides an adequate fit in
all of those cases and for the remaining 74% of the rivers the extended model and the power-law model both give adequate fit
with almost identical estimates. |
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