IPCC AR6报告解读：水循环变化

水循环在全球和区域气候变化中扮演重要角色,与全球变暖背景下水循环变化密切相关的淡水资源短缺、副热带干旱区扩张、极端旱涝灾害频发等问题日益突出,严重制约生态系统和人类社会的可持续发展。在IPCC第六次评估报告中,第一工作组首次单独设立一章,即第八章,用于系统性评估全球水循环变化。评估显示,自20世纪中叶以来,人类活动已经显著地改变了全球水循环,包括大气湿度和降水强度的整体性增加,全球干旱模态改变,南半球风暴轴向极地移动等。已经发生的水循环变化受到温室气体、气溶胶、土地利用在内的多种人类强迫的影响,而未来全球水循环变化将逐渐由温室气体主导。

Water cycle changes: interpretation of IPCC AR6

The water cycle plays an important role in global and regional climate changes, and problems such as shortage of freshwater resources, expansion of subtropical drylands, and frequent occurrence of extreme droughts and floods, which are closely related to water cycle changes in the context of global warming, are becoming increasingly prominent and seriously constrain the sustainable development of ecosystems and human society. In the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Working Group I established a separate chapter, namely Chapter 8, for an integrated assessment of global water cycle changes. AR6 suggested that human activity has significantly altered the global water cycle since the mid-20th century, including an overall increase in atmospheric moisture and precipitation intensity, changes in the global drought patterns, and the poleward shift of storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere. Changes in the water cycle that have occurred were influenced by a variety of anthropogenic forcing including greenhouse gases, aerosol and land use change, while future water cycle changes will gradually be dominated by greenhouse gases.