天津地区用电量与气温的非线性响应关系研究

利用门限回归模型和非线性滑动回归模型,分析天津市2014—2019年日用电量和气温之间的非线性关系,并计算得到不同响应关系下的阈值气温.结果表明:天津地区的阈值气温在不同响应关系下存在明显差异,在"V"型非线性响应关系下,阈值气温为18.8℃,在"U"型响应关系下,线性不对称模型的舒适区范围为12.3—23.4℃,非线...

Study on the nonlinear response relationship between electricity consumption and air temperature in Tianjin area

Using the threshold regression model and the nonlinear sliding regression model, the nonlinear relationship between the daily electricity consumption and temperature in Tianjin from 2014 to 2019 was explored, and the threshold temperature under different response relationships was calculated. The results showed that the threshold temperature in Tianjin is significantly different under different response relationships. Under the "V"-shaped nonlinear response relationship, the threshold temperature is 18.8℃, while under the "U"-shaped response relationship, the comfort zone of the linear asymmetric model is 12.3-23.4℃, and the comfort zone range of the nonlinear model is 13.7-21.7℃. Comparing the prediction effects of different models, it is considered that the "U" model is better than the "V" model, and the nonlinear model is better than the linear model. The analysis on the influence factors of the threshold temperature showed that relative humidity has a greater impact on the threshold temperature of the comfort zone and the cooling zone. The threshold temperature is 2.2℃ higher when the relative humidity is 30%-50% than when the relative humidity is 50%-70%. In contrast, relative humidity has little effect on the threshold temperature of the comfort zone and heating zone. The threshold temperature in Tianjin will change significantly over time, and the range of the comfort zone in 2002-2005 is 1.4℃ larger than that in 2014-2019. In practical applications, the threshold temperature should be selected according to the needs of the model, and the influence of relative humidity and time changes should be fully considered, to improve the accuracy of electricity consumption prediction.