Prediction efficiency in an avalanche model for different target events |
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| Authors: | A. B. Shapoval M. G. Shnirman |
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| Affiliation: | (1) International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Varshavskoe sh. 79, korp. 2, Moscow, 113556, Russia;(2) Finance Academy, Government of the Russian Federation, Leningradskii pr. 49, Moscow, 125468, Russia |
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| Abstract: | The avalanche formation model has much in common with the formation of earthquakes [Bak and Tang, 1989]. A well-known modification of this model is studied and predictability of the strongest events is demonstrated. The prediction efficiency increases with the size of target events. In particular, 75% of strong events are predicted for a fixed size if an alarm lasts for one-third of the observation time. |
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