塔里木河源流区气候变化和年径流量关系初探

基于1957~2003年塔里木河流域源流区长期监测资料,分析塔里木河流域源流区的主要河流年径流量和相应气温、降水变化的特点,探讨流域内气候变化与水资源量变化的关系。利用非参数检验的方法,分析温度、降水变化与径流量变化的关联性和一致性。结果显示:在塔里木河流域源流区,温度在0.05水平上呈现单调递增的趋势,降水则表现为不显著增加的走势,而径流量基本均出现了递增现象;从参数检验和非参数分析的结果看,温度升高与径流量增加的关联趋势更明显。

Relationship Between Climate Changes and Annual Runoff of Headstreams of Tarim River

Based on the data from 8 meteorological stations and 7 hydrologic stations of the Tarim River in 1957-2003,the article analyzes the variation tendency of annual runoff and characteristics of temperature and precipitation of the main headstreams of the Tarim river,and then discusses the relationship between climate changes and annual runoff in the headstreams.Afterward,the nonparametric method is applied to test the correlation and consistency between temperature,precipitation and runoff.It is shown that when significant level satisfies with 0.05,the temperature of the headstreams has a liner-increasing trend while the precipitation increases weakly.But the runoff is always an obviously increasing trend since 1994.By the two-variable Wilcoxon testing,the temperature and runoff,precipitation and runoff respectively have a certain correlation.By the Kendall's W testing,the runoff,temperature and precipitation of the Akesu River and the Kaidu River all have obvious correlation.The results show that the runoff of the two rivers increases with the increasing of the temperature and precipitation.However,since significant level does not satisfy with the testing standard,the three variables show different change trend in the Hotan River and the Yerqiang River.So we discuss the main climate factors affecting the runoff change by the nonparametric and parametric method.The results show that the increase of temperature may be the more obvious factor to result in increasing the runoff in the headstreams of the Tarim River.