2006-2016年昆明市雷电致灾因素分析及易损性风险区划

基于近11 a（2006-2016）云南省闪电定位监测数据以及雷电灾害汇编资料，运用ArcGIS对闪电数据与地理信息进行叠加，分析昆明市地闪活动规律和雷电灾害时空分布特征，结合地理环境、人口分布和经济社会发展情况，研究雷电致灾成因机制。从灾害系统理论和综合易损性出发，构建评价指标体系及权重判断矩阵，计算雷电灾害风险综合评价指数R值并进行分级，形成昆明市雷电灾害易损性风险区划。结果表明：频繁活跃的地闪活动是导致雷电灾害多发的主要致灾影响因子，雷电灾害的时空分布与地闪活动的变化特征存在较好的对应关系。全市有雷电灾害高易损区3个，次高易损区2个，中易损区4个，次低易损区4个，低易损区1个，建立雷电灾害易损性区划，能够为确定雷电防护重点和防范等级提供必要的参考依据，通过完善雷电防护措施，可以增强承灾体抵御雷电灾害的能力。

Analysis of the causes of lightning disasters in Kunming City from 2006 to 2016 and vulnerability risk zoning

Based on the lightning location monitoring data and lightning disaster compilation data of Yunnan Province in recent 11 years (2006-2016), the lightning data and geographical information are overlapped by ArcGIS. The ground lightning activity regularities and the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of lightning disasters in Kunming are analyzed. The mechanism of causes of lightning disasters is studied in combination with geographical environment, population distribution and economic and social development. Based on the disaster system theory and comprehensive vulnerability, the evaluation index system and weight judgment matrix are constructed, and the comprehensive lightning disaster risk evaluation index R value is calculated and classified to form the vulnerability risk zoning of lightning disaster in Kunming. The results show that frequent and active ground lightning activities are the main factors causing frequent lightning disasters. There is a good relationship between the spatial-temporal distribution of lightning disasters and the variation characteristics of ground lightning activities. There are three high-level vulnerable areas, two sub-high-level vulnerable areas, four mid-level vulnerable areas, four sub-low-level vulnerable areas and one low-level vulnerable area in the city. The establishment of the vulnerability zoning of lightning disasters can provide necessary reference for determining the key lightning protection points and the level of prevention. By improving the lightning protection measures, the disaster-bearing body can be strengthened to resist lightning.