应用极值理论估计华南地区未来5至10年的地震危险性

本文应用极值分布函数和震级平均复发周期概念,研究了华南5条地震带的缺震情况,外推未来5至10年结果表明:右江带无M≥5级地震:东南沿海内带有5.6～5.9级地震危险,但危险性不大;东南沿海外带发生6.5～6.9级地震的概率达69％;台湾西带随时可能发生5级和6级地震;台湾东带随时有可能发生6级和7级地震。

THE ESTIMATION OF SEISMIC RISK IN THE COMINGFIVE OR TEN YEARS IN SOUTH CHINA AREABY USING THE LARGEST VALUE THEORY

In this paper, the situation of seismic gaps in five seismic zones of South China is studied by using the extremal distribution function and average recurrence period of magnitutes. The result shows that in the coming five or ten years, there isn't any earthquakes of M = 5 in Youjiang seismic zone, earthquakes of M = 5.5-5.9 may occur at the intrazone of southeastern coast, but it does not cause any harmful to us, and there is probability of 69 per cent that earthquakes of M = 6.5-6.9 will occur at the outer zone of southeaster , coast. At the west zone of Taiwan, it is possible that earthquakes of M= 5 or M= 6 will occur at any time and at the east zone of Taiwan, there will be earthquakes about M= 6 or M= 7 at all times.