The implementation of reverse Kessler warm rain scheme for radar reflectivity assimilation using a nudging approach in New Zealand

Reverse Kessler warm rain processes were implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and coupled with a Newtonian relaxation, or nudging technique designed to improve quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) in New Zealand by making use of observed radar reflectivity and modest computing facilities. One of the reasons for developing such a scheme, rather than using 4D-Var for example, is that radar VAR scheme in general, and 4D-Var in particular, requires computational resources beyond the capability of most university groups and indeed some national forecasting centres of small countries like New Zealand. The new scheme adjusts the model water vapor mixing ratio profiles based on observed reflectivity at each time step within an assimilation time window. The whole scheme can be divided into following steps: (i) The radar reflectivity is firstly converted to rain water, and (ii) then the rain water is used to derive cloud water content according to the reverse Kessler scheme; (iii) The cloud water content associated water vapor mixing ratio is then calculated based on the saturation adjustment processes; (iv) Finally the adjusted water vapor is nudged into the model and the model background is updated. 13 rainfall cases which occurred in the summer of 2011/2012 in New Zealand were used to evaluate the new scheme, different forecast scores were calculated and showed that the new scheme was able to improve precipitation forecasts on average up to around 7 hours ahead depending on different verification thresholds.