Stability assessment and risk analysis of aboveground river in lower Yellow River

Although the Chinese people have, through continuous efforts, built the constantly improving Yellow River flood control system, and created a miracle which has been tranquil for over 50 years, the tendency for the downstream watercourse of the Yellow River to uplift every year has not been fundamentally curbed, and the aboveground river is still the “scourge” of the sons and daughters of the Yellow River. By the use of a variety of modern investigation and survey methods, the geological environment characteristics of the downstream of the Yellow River have been identified basically, including the environmental and geological factors affecting the stability of aboveground rivercourse of the lower Yellow River such as the active fracture of the lower Yellow River, crustal uplift, land subsidence, seismic activity, geological conditions of dike foundation engineering, hydrodynamic conditions of rivers, and geomorphology of watercourses. After a comprehensive analysis of the inability mode of aboveground river on the downstream of the Yellow River and its corresponding impact factors, by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, we have evaluated the crustal stability of the aboveground river, dike foundation stability, watercourse landform stability and overall stability. The results of comprehensive results show that the stability of downstream aboveground rivercourse of the Yellow River can be divided into four grades and 11 sections, i e. “basically stable, unstable, very unstable and extremely unstable”. On the basis of the stability segmentation, we consider the influence of integrally the future structural faults, earthquakes, the difference of watercourse between forward and backward heights of dikes, river regime and river type, historical crevasses, foundation soil liquefaction and seepage deformation, and find out 17 most unstable danger points. Finally, from 17 danger points, we select 7 danger points which are most prone to instability including Wuzhi, Zhongmou, Kaifeng, Fengqiu, Dongming, Changyuan and Dong’e. The calculation and analysis of the range and area inundated by 7 danger points, area, and number of people threatened, possible economic loss, and environmental damage, the inability caused by any one of 7 points could bring disastrous consequences to the downstream.