世界油气资源现状与未来发展方向

以翔实的数据为基础,阐述了世界油气资源现状,分析了油气供需、价格变化与世界经济发展的内在关系,指出根据目前油气发现的规律,今后将发现更多的油气资源,油气供应过剩和低油价应该是未来一段时间的常态。由于石油资源需求与分布的不均衡性,局部油气资源供给安全问题依然存在,应通过"一带一路"互联互通,以区域能源安全保障来解决局部能源安全的问题。今后有限的勘探力量应该用于全球范围大盆地富油气凹陷的勘探开发上,提高技术投入,以保障油气生产的低成本与高效益。气候变化与环境恶化使减排、低碳与可再生能源发展成为人类的共同使命,努力实现从化石能源向可再生能源的转型将是人类共同的目标,今后更多的力量将转向可再生能源的发展上。

Current states of world petroleum resource and its future trends

The current states of world oil and gas resources, the relationship between world oil and gas supply and demand, and the trend of world oil and gas price change and economic development have been detailed and analyzed in this paper. We noticed that in a limited time span (e.g. 100 years), world oil and gas discovery and production would go up other than follow a bell shape, and excess oil and gas supply and low oil and gas prices would maintain a long time (e.g. 10 years). The author recommends that both the government and company should reduce upstream investment, limit funding should focus on giant basin and prolific hydrocarbon depressions guiding by low cost and high efficiency policy, and more effort should shift to renewable energy development. Low-carbon and healthy environment should be the common goal of mankind.