黄河水资源量可再生性问题及量化研究

通过探讨黄河水资源量可再生性的量化问题，对黄河断流的情况、危害和成因进行分析。由于水资源量可再生性问题的复杂性，现行的方法一般都过于简单。目前迫切需要从水文循环更深层次上揭示水资源量可再生性。依据系统理论方法，从河流水循环系统的稳定性和抗干扰能力出发，提出度量和评价河流水体水资源量可再生性的指数。利用该指数，对黄河干流上、中、下游河段不同年代的水资源量可再生能力进行了定量评价，评价结果能够客观地反映实际情况。从维持水资源量可再生性的角度，进行了黄河干流水资源量的调控分析。模拟结果表明，20世纪90年代严重的黄河断流问题主要受人为因素的影响。

The Renewability of Water Resources and Its Quantification of the Yellow River Basin in China

The drying-up event in the lower reaches of the Yellow River during the 1990s was the most serious problem of water resources issues in China that involved the concept of water resources renewability in the Yellow River basin. The problem of renewability linked with hydrological process affected by climate change and human activity was addressed in this paper. A quantitative method was developed to analyse causes and to propose countermeasures to improve renewability of water resources. The magnitude of renewability and change in time and space within the river system can be represented using this method. According to the analysis of observation data set, the renewability of water resources of the Yellow River basin has had a significant declining trend since the 1950s. Specially, the renewability indicator in the downstream has reduced 0.2 with a worse situation of the 1990s. By renewability assessment, some of the workable countermeasures can be analyzed.