地震预报研究的主攻方向: 动力数值预测

尽管地震预测是一个举世公认的国际性科学难题，怛在强化各种减轻地震灾害措施的同时，仍须把地震的监测和预报作为中国地震局最为重要的任务。为此，需要高举攻克地震预测难题的旗帜，打破长期以来地震预测研究徘徊不前的局面。我们必须充分认识近年来地球物理观测技术和计算机技术所取得的重大进步和发展态势，并在此基础上制定地震预测研究的发展战略。以GPS为代表的空间对地观测技术，巨型高分辨率宽频带流动地震台阵观测技术以及电磁阵列观测技术的发展趋势表明，从布网观测走向阵列观测已经成为21世纪地球物理观测研究发展的基本方向。上述高新技术和计算机数值模拟技术的发展为地震动力学研究提供了前所未有的技术基础。为此，需要积极借助数值天气预报的经验，打破经验性地震预测的局限，把研究的注意力尽快转向以动力学为基础的地震数值预报。以地震数值预报为目标的GPS阵列地壳形变连续观测，高分辨率地壳上地幔结构探测，地壳动力学，地震孕育和破裂过程的理论、模拟试验和实际观测，数据同化和计算软件的开发应成为今后研究发展的重点。现在的问题是，需要我们强化多学科，多部门的组织协调，尽早在有条件的地区开展地震动力学数值预报的科学试验和相关的理论研究。这必将极大地促进我国地震科学基础研究的发展和地震预报水平的提高。

Main Task of Earthquake Prediction Research:Numerical Dynamic Forecast

The earthquake prediction is a sticker recognized universally. Nevertheless, sim ultaneously with strengthening earthquake hazard mitigation, the earthquake moni toring and prediction are still the priority task of China Earthquake Administra tion. Therefore, we should hold high the banner of earthquake prediction, and ma ke our efforts to change the status of stagnating at the empirical prediction ba sed on earthquake precursors. The great advances in the modern technologies, like satellite geodesy represente d by the GPS, broadband seismic observations by the aid of portable mega-array as well as EMAP (ElectroMagnetic Analysis Program), demonstrate that the main st ream of solid earth observation techniques in 21st century will be shifted from network observation to the array observation. These high technologies mentioned above as well as computer simulation technique have provided with unprecedented technical sustention for earthquake dynamics study. For this purpose, we need to be aided in the experience of the weather numerical forecast to break through t he limitation of the current empirical earthquake prediction, and shift our atte ntion to the earthquake numerical forecast based on the earthquake dynamics as e arly as possible. Various projects, like the GPS array observation, the high-resolution study of the crust and upper mantle structure, the crustal dynamics, theoretical, laborat ory and observational studies of earthquake gestation and rupture process, data assimilation and software development should be integrated and become the key po ints emphasized in the future. Now our problem is to strengthen and to coordinat e multidisciplinary and branch cooperation, and start scientific experimentation and theoretical study of the earthquake numerical forecast in some appropriate region as soon as possible. This will promote greatly the progress of earthquake science and earthquake prediction of China.