江苏—南黄海地区地震链及其有序网络结构研究

根据翁文波信息预测理论，对江苏—南黄海地区自1839年以来M_s≥5中强地震链时空有序性进行了深入研究，构建了本区南黄海海域和全区M_s≥6强震的有序网络结构，并据此对未来6级强震进行了预测，同时分析讨论了本区地震活动的分期.结论表明：本区从1998年起进入新一轮平静幕，此幕可能持续到2042年前后，下次活跃幕的首次6级强震可能发生在2053年前后.

Research on earthquake chains and its orderly network structure in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region

According to the information prediction theory, we have done an in-depth research on the spatio-temporal orderliness of M_s≥5 mid-strong earthquake chains in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region since 1839. We conceived M_s≥6 strong earthquake orderly network structure in the South Yellow Sea region and the whole region. We also did prediction of strong earthquake with magnitude 6 in the future and meanwhile we analysed and discussed the variation of seismicity. The result showed that since 1998 it has entered into a new quiet episode, and it may last to about 2042; the first strong earthquake with magnitude 6 of next active episode may take place in the year about 2053.