| 青藏铁路沿线的天灾及其预测方法探索 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 汤懋苍, 张拥军, 李栋梁. 青藏铁路沿线的天灾及其预测方法探索[J]. 地球物理学报, 2006, 49(5): 1316-1320, |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 汤懋苍 张拥军 李栋梁 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 兰州730000 2 中国科学院研究生院, 北京100049 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文统计了青藏铁路沿线50多年来的强地震、雪灾和夏季旱涝，并根据地气耦合原理对其成因进行了分析，找到了一些很好的预报因子，初步得出了以下结论：未来10年35оN以南的沿线地区将很少会发生Ms＞6级的强震；“本区强震年”和8月沿线为地热涡控制时铁路沿线会发生雪灾；本区冬季为地冷涡控制时一般为夏旱年.
|
| 关 键 词： | 青藏铁路沿线 天灾 预测方法 地气耦合 |
| 文章编号： | 0001-5733（2006）05-1316-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-12-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-12-152005-05-25 |
Natural disasters along the Qinghai_Xizang railway and their prediction |
| |
| TANG Mao_Cang, ZHANG Yong_Jun, LI Dong_Liang. Natural disasters along the Qinghai_Xizang railway and their prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 2006, 49(5): 1316-1320, |
| |
| Authors: | TANG Mao-Cang ZHANG Yong-Jun LI Dong-Liang |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China 2 The Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
| |
| Abstract: | We have made statistics of strong earthquakes,snow disasters,floods and drought in summer along the Qinghai-Xizang railway in the last 50 years,analyzed their causes using the Di-qi map method,and found the prediction factors. We predict that there will be seldom strong earthquakes of M-s>6 along the Qinghai-Xizang railway in the next 10 years,and the snow disaster will happen when the strong earthquake happen in the same region and at the same time or this district is controlled by the geothermal vortex in August,and the drought in summer will happen as cold vortex controls this region in winter. |
| |
| Keywords: | Along the Qinghai-Xizang railway Natural disaster Prediction method Coupling between earth and atmosphere |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《地球物理学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《地球物理学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
