汶川地震引发的中国地震预报探讨

通过中国地震预报历程、地震震例的总结研究和汶川地震的概要回顾,表明我国地震预报已取得了有益的经验教训,海城地震等事例说明至少一些地震是存在前兆的,依据前兆进行地震预报是有希望的,但地震预报需要持续不断的长期探索研究。目前,依靠地震预报来防御地震灾害是不现实的,加强地震预报的科学研究,基于地震危险性的科学分析结果进行抗震设防是有效的减灾途径。

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN CHINA:DISCUSSIONS AFTER THE 2008 WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE

In China,earthquake prediction is a government sanctioned and law regulated measure of disaster prevention. This paper briefly reviewed the history of earthquake prediction work in China since 1966,12 predicted earthquakes in 1975 to 2003,and the prediction work prior to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The earthquake prediction work started in the Xingtai earthquake occurred in March 1966.It climaxed with the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake with an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence. The 1975 Haicheng earthquake and other earthquakes demonstrated that some earthquakes do have precursors that may lead to some prediction,although the physical relationships between precursors and earthquakes are not well understood up to now. Nevertheless,the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake demonstrated the gloomy reality of earthquake prediction. At present,therefore,it is impractical to rely on prediction to prevent earthquake disasters. The practical approach is to strengthen the earthquake resistant capability of our buildings. The earthquake prediction work has yielded useful experience and lessons in China. Perhaps,earthquake prediction still requires long term efforts of generations of scientists in the world.