天山北坡经济带固定资产投资特征及其对城镇集聚的影响

 在研究天山北坡经济带2000-2009年固定资产投资和城镇集聚基本特征基础之上,采用主成分分析法和面板数据回归模型,定量分析了固定资产投资对该地区城镇集聚的影响和作用机制。结果表明：（1）天山北坡经济带全社会固定资产投资在各县市分布相对集中于区域中心城市,呈现明显的“序位-规模”分布,具有行政区经济的特点,政府主导度与投资集中度成反向关系;（2）天山北坡经济带的城镇集聚过程首先以经济集聚和土地的非农化过程为主,其次是城镇人口的集聚,最后是社会生活水平的提高;（3）以固定资产投资为代表的政府行政力是推动天山北坡经济带城镇集聚的重要力量之一,其对行政级别越高,工业化水平越高城镇的集聚作用更强;（4）不同时期天山北坡经济带固定资产投资对城镇集聚的作用效应并不相同,初期投资主要促进城镇人口和空间规模的扩大,对城镇经济集聚作用较小;末期投资对城镇经济集聚、人口与空间规模均具有明显的促进作用,对社会人均基础设施及生活水平有较小的负作用。

Characteristics of fixed asset investment and influence to urban agglomeration in the economic belt on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains

Studies show that arid area oasis cities and towns are in closure situation,and urban development is relatively slow,so,the external factors play an important role in the agglomeration progress. Fixed assets investment as an intervention factor of higher levels of government for local development is an important thrust to urban development in the arid area. This paper is intended to study the features of fixed asset investment in the Economic Zone on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2009,including three indicators: investment concentration coefficient,the investment [H] index and the government-led degree. Then, collecting socio-economic data in this region,and using the entropy method the urban agglomeration index was calculated of all towns from 2000 to 2009. On this basis,using the principal component analysis and panel data model, the influence was quantitatively analyzed of fixed asset investment and mechanism to urban agglomeration. The results show as follows: （1） the distribution of fixed asset investment in the Economic Belt on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains concentrated in regional central cities is obviously "ordinal-scale" distribution and has the characteristics of administrative region economy. The government leading degree and investment concentration degree have a reverse relationship. （2）The urban agglomeration in the Economic Belt on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains is mainly the process of economic concentration and land conversion process at the first, the concentration of the urban population process in the second place, and the last is the increasing of the social life level. （3）Administrative force, as a representative of fixed asset investment, is one important driving force of urban agglomeration in the Economic Belt on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains. This driving force has a stronger role in the higher administrative level areas and the higher industrialization level areas. （4）The effects of fixed asset investment to urban agglomeration in the Economic Belt on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains are different in the different periods. In the initial stage, the investment mainly promoted the increasing of the urban scales; in later stage, the investments promoted not only the increasing of the urban scales, but also the urban economic concentration.