An integrated assessment of INDCs under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: an implementation of C3IAM |
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| Authors: | Yi-Ming Wei Rong Han Qiao-Mei Liang Bi-Ying Yu Yun-Fei Yao Mei-Mei Xue Kun Zhang Li-Jing Liu Juan Peng Pu Yang Zhi-Fu Mi Yun-Fei Du Ce Wang Jun-Jie Chang Qian-Ru Yang Zili Yang Xueli Shi Wei Xie Changyi Liu Zhongyu Ma Jinxiao Tan Weizheng Wang Bao-Jun Tang Yun-Fei Cao Mingquan Wang Jin-Wei Wang Jia-Ning Kang Ke Wang Hua Liao |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing,China;2.School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing,China;3.Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management,Beijing,China;4.The Bartlett School of Construction and Project Management,University College London,London,UK;5.Department of Economics,State University of New York at Binghamton,Binghamton,USA;6.The National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration,Beijing,China;7.School of Advanced Agriculture Sciences,Peking University,Beijing,China;8.The National Information Center of National Development and Reform Commission,Beijing,China;9.Shanghai Advanced Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shanghai,China |
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| Abstract: | A series of global actions have been made to address climate change. As a recent developed climate policy, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) have renewed attention to the importance of exploring temperature rise levels lower than 2 °C, in particular a long-term limit of 1.5 °C, compared to the preindustrial level. Nonetheless, achieving the 2 °C target under the current INDCs depends on dynamic socioeconomic development pathways. Therefore, this study conducts an integrated assessment of INDCs by taking into account different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). To that end, the CEEP-BIT research community develops the China’s Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model (C3IAM) to assess the climate change under SSPs in the context of with and without INDCs. Three SSPs, including “a green growth strategy” (SSP1), “a more middle-of-the-road development pattern” (SSP2) and “further fragmentation between regions” (SSP3) form the focus of this study. Results show that after considering INDCs, mitigation costs become very low and they have no evident positive changes in three SSPs. In 2100, a temperature rise would occur in SSP1-3, which is 3.20, 3.48 and 3.59 °C, respectively. There are long-term difficulties to keep warming well below 2 °C and pursue efforts toward 1.5 °C target even under INDCs. A drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is needed in order to mitigate potentially catastrophic climate change impacts. This work contributes on realizing the hard link between the earth and socioeconomic systems, as well as extending the economic models by coupling the global CGE model with the economic optimum growth model. In C3IAM, China’s energy consumption and emissions pattern are investigated and refined. This study can provide policy makers and the public a better understanding about pathways through which different scenarios could unfold toward 2100, highlights the real mitigation and adaption challenges faced by climate change and can lead to formulating effective policies. |
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