Correction to: Tropical cyclone: expressions for velocity components and stability parameter |
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Authors: | Indrajit Ghosh Nabajit Chakravarty |
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Institution: | 1.Ateneo de Manila University,Quezon City,Philippines;2.Marine Science Institute,University of the Philippines,Quezon City,Philippines;3.Department of Mathematics,Ateneo de Manila University,Quezon City,Philippines;4.Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology,University of the Philippines,Quezon City,Philippines;5.Department of Physics,Ateneo de Manila University,Quezon City,Philippines;6.Manila Observatory,Quezon City,Philippines |
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Abstract: | Historically, Leyte Gulf in central eastern Philippines has received catastrophic damage due to storm surges, the most recent of which was during Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. A city-level risk assessment was performed on Leyte Gulf through synthetic storm generation, high-resolution ocean modeling, and decision tree analyses. Cyclones were generated through a combination of a Poisson point process and Monte Carlo simulations. Wind and pressure fields generated from the cyclones were used in a storm surge model of Leyte Gulf developed on Delft3D. The output of these simulations was a synthetic record of extreme sea level events, which were used to estimate maximum surge heights for different return periods and to characterize surge-producing storm characteristics using decision tree analyses. The results showed that the area most prone to surges is the Tacloban–Basey area with a 2.8?±?0.3 m surge occurring at a frequency of every 50 years. Nearby Palo area will likely receive a surge of 1.9?±?0.4 m every 50 years while Giporlos–Salcedo area a surge of 1.0?±?0.1 m. The decision tree analysis performed for each of these areas showed that for surges of 3–4 m, high-velocity winds (>?30 m/s) are consistently the main determining factor. For the areas, Tacloban, Basey, and Giporlos–Salcedo, wind speed was also the main determining factor for surge?>?4 m. |
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