“丝路”海运网络的脆弱性及风险控制研究

为研究海上丝绸之路集装箱海运网络的脆弱性,对沿线集装箱港口及挂靠航线进行了统计,构建了海上丝绸之路集装箱海运网络,以随机攻击和蓄意攻击两种方式分别对网络的平均度、孤立节点比例、聚类系数、平均路径长度、网络效率和最大连通子图相对大小等反映网络连通性特征值的变化进行了研究。结果表明“丝路”海运网络在受到随机攻击时较为“强壮”,在受到蓄意攻击时相对脆弱。经进一步挖掘,揭示了蓄意攻击下网络开始崩溃和完全崩溃的临界点,并据此指出了需重点保护的枢纽干线港;结合地理特征,分析了“丝路”中主要海上通道通航受阻时网络连通性的变化,发现马六甲海峡、台湾海峡、曼德海峡及苏伊士运河对网络的脆弱性影响最为显著。为进行风险评价,分析了“丝路”网络脆弱性形成因素和抗毁性机制,并提出了相应的抗毁性评价方法,经计算得出南亚为“丝路”网络中抗毁性最薄弱的区域。最后,结合地缘风险分析,提出了相应的对策和建议。本研究对于认清“丝路”海运网络的脆弱性及风险控制方法,保障其互联互通,具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。

Vulnerability and risk management in the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network

The Maritime Silk Road is representative of China's global strategy of this century. The road runs through the western Pacific Ocean, the southern Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and the eastern Atlantic Ocean, connecting most of the ports in Eurasia and northeastern Africa from east to west. As world economy dependence on container shipping has been constantly increasing and terrorism has quickly spread, research on the vulnerability and geopolitical risk of the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network is crucial in establishing and improving the security mechanism in the global economy operation, as well as in guaranteeing unobstructed container shipping. Our study specifically addresses this issue through a statistical analysis of all ports and shipping lines in the Maritime Silk Road operated by global container shipping companies in 2015, covering 93% of the global container shipping capacity. The results highlight the presence of 2429 shipping lines and 440 ports in the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network. Based on these statistics, we calculated the rates of change of network average degree, isolated-node proportion, clustering coefficient, network average shortest-path length, network efficiency, and relative size of the largest connected subgraph when the network is under either random or intentional attack. Results indicate that the network is robust under random attack, but vulnerable under an intentional one. We find that the top 53 ports with the largest node strength are hub/mainline ports which require more careful protection, as the network begins to collapse when the intentional attack rate reaches 12%, with a complete collapse when such a rate is 30%. Moreover, by combining geographical features and calculating the rates of change of the network metrics when the main channels in the Maritime Silk Road are interrupted, we find that the straits of Malacca, Taiwan, and Mandeb, as well as the Suez Canal are the most influential channels, thus requiring more attention in terms of protection. In the risk evaluation, the factors determining network vulnerability and survivability are analysed. As for the latter, we find that South Asia is the weakest area in the network. Then, by combining geopolitical and economic factors, we considered the geopolitical risk of the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network. Finally, we formulated corresponding policy recommendations from the perspective of maritime security. Overall, this paper is of great theoretical significance and practical value in the study of vulnerability and risk management of the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network.