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Evaluating the Capabilities of Soil Enthalpy,Soil Moisture and Soil Temperature in Predicting Seasonal Precipitation
Authors:Changyu ZHAO  Haishan CHEN  Shanlei SUN
Abstract:Soil enthalpy (H) contains the combined effects of both soil moisture (w) and soil temperature (T) in the land surface hydrothermal process. In this study, the sensitivities of H to w and T are investigated using the multi-linear regression method. Results indicate that T generally makes positive contributions to H, while w exhibits different (positive or negative) impacts due to soil ice effects. For example, w negatively contributes to H if soil contains more ice; however, after soil ice melts, w exerts positive contributions. In particular, due to lower w interannual variabilities in the deep soil layer (i.e., the fifth layer), H is more sensitive to T than to w. Moreover, to compare the potential capabilities of H, w and T in precipitation (P) prediction, the Huanghe-Huaihe Basin (HHB) and Southeast China (SEC), with similar sensitivities of H to w and T, are selected. Analyses show that, despite similar spatial distributions of H-P and T-P correlation coefficients, the former values are always higher than the latter ones. Furthermore, H provides the most effective signals for P prediction over HHB and SEC, i.e., a significant leading correlation between May H and early summer (June) P. In summary, H, which integrates the effects of T and w as an independent variable, has greater capabilities in monitoring land surface heating and improving seasonal P prediction relative to individual land surface factors (e.g., T and w).
Keywords:seasonal precipitation prediction  land surface process  soil enthalpy  soil moisture  soil temperature
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