景观生态风险研究进展及基于生态系统服务的评价框架: ESRISK

在快速城市化过程中,高强度人为活动对生态系统结构和服务功能造成极大扰动,进而产生一定生态风险。近年来,景观生态风险评价的兴起为景观格局—生态过程互馈研究提供了新的视角,可有效支持生态系统管理。本文在探讨生态风险、区域生态风险与景观生态风险联系与区别的基础上,重点评述了景观指数法和风险“源—汇”法等主要景观生态风险评价方法,归纳了基于生态系统服务的景观生态风险研究进展。进一步地,以生态系统服务退化为损失表征,从地形、人为胁迫、生态恢复力、景观脆弱性等维度构建概率表征指标体系,提出了基于生态系统服务的景观生态风险评价（ESRISK）框架,以期为景观生态风险研究提供一个更为完善、综合的评价方法参考,并辅助支持风险减缓策略制定和有限资源的高效分配。最后,从生态系统服务权衡与协同关系、评价结果不确定性分析、景观生态风险与景观格局多尺度关联关系、脆弱性研究深化等方面做出展望。

Review of landscape ecological risk and an assessment framework based on ecological services: ESRISK

During rapid urbanization, high-intensity human activities have imposed significant stress on the structure and services of the ecosystem, resulting in ecological risk. In recent years, rising landscape ecological risk assessments have provided a new perspective for studying the relationship between landscape patterns and the ecological process, which can effectively support ecosystem management. Through a comparison of the concepts of ecological risk, regional ecological risk, and landscape ecological risk, this paper primarily reviews the two main methods for landscape ecological risk assessment: landscape index method and risk "source-sink" method. We also discuss the research progress of landscape ecological risk based on ecological services. In addition, this paper puts forward a framework for landscape ecological risk assessment, ESRISK, based on ecosystem services. In this framework, ecological loss is represented by the degradation level of key ecological services, and risk probability is represented from the perspectives of terrain, artificial stress, ecological restoration, and landscape vulnerability. As for scientific rigor, the ESRISK framework is a comprehensive assessment of landscape ecological risk in the urban and regional development process, in which the landscape is the study object and ecosystem services serve as the medium. In terms of application prospects, the ESRISK framework is applicable to different assessment purposes, study areas, and scales. The framework could also potentially provide a more integrative paradigm for assessment of landscape ecological risk and support the determination of regional adaptive risk mitigation strategy, and the efficient allocation of limited resources. Lastly, we have submitted future research trends from four perspectives: (1) Focusing on long-term ecosystem service loss dynamics and incorporating tradeoffs and synergies among ecosystem services into the assessment framework; (2) strengthening the analysis of uncertainty in assessment results and risk decision scenario simulation; (3) revealing relationships between landscape ecological risk and landscape patterns, as well as multi-scale and nonlinear characteristics; and (4) integrating remote sensing and socioeconomic data to deepen risk assessment into vulnerability research.