国家园林城市时空演变特征及其影响机理

“树典型”的国家治理方式生产出诸多针对特定类型地域的评选项目,将此类项目评定结果抽象为点状地理事物进行空间分析是值得探究的方向。以国家园林城市为例,基于对其政策演进、发展历程及特色模式的宏微观结合分析,选择2003 年、2009 年、2015 年3个时点,采用网格维数、集中度系数、核密度估计、ESDA及叠置分析、矩阵分析、PPCC等方法,探究其时空演变的多维特征及影响机理。结果表明：① 国家园林城市在时间演化上,历经建设探索、生态化发展和宜居性提升3个阶段;② 在结构特征上,表现出分形状况较复杂的特征和分布集聚程度不断上升的趋势;③ 在分布格局上,与中国的综合自然地理区划高度耦合、与“胡焕庸线”显著相关,呈现为“东南密西北疏”的特征且变化不大;④ 在关联格局上,一直存在全局自相关性,冷热点区域的变动明显;⑤ 在影响机理上,水热气候条件、历史园林资源、城市发育状况、经济发展水平的区域分异和部门评审管理权力、地方政府重视程度等因素的相互作用是其演变的动力。

The spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics and the impact mechanism of national garden cities in China

The application of a geographical perspective in the development of representative national level spatial models of governance in China constitutes a gap in the literature. The purpose of this study was to address this gap through a spatial analysis of the outcomes of numerous regional projects aimed at establishing a "typical" model of national governance. National garden cities in China were considered as illustrative case studies for developing this model. Three points in time were selected based on macro-level and micro-level analyses of the development histories and characteristic patterns of national garden cities and the evolution of policies to support their development. Using a range of methods that included grid dimension and coefficient of concentration measurements, kernel density estimation, ESDA and overlay analysis, matrix analysis, and PPCC, this study investigated the multidimensional characteristics and the influence mechanism of the spatio-temporal evolution of national garden cities in China. The following findings emerged from the study. First, national garden cities have undergone three stages in their evolution: construction and exploration, ecological development, and adjustments to improve their livability. Second, an examination of their structural characteristics indicated greater complexity and a trend reflecting an increasingly concentrated distribution relating to their fractal situation. Third, their distribution pattern was found to be strongly associated with China's physical and geographical divisions. Moreover, their distribution was closely correlated with the "Hu Line", demonstrating "dense in the southeast and sparse in the northwest" characteristics that have remained largely constant. Fourth, there has been a global autocorrelation relating to the pattern of association that indicates significant changes in hotspot and coldspot areas. Last, the findings revealed that interactions between factors such as hydrothermal climatic conditions, historical garden resources, urban development status, regionally differentiated levels of economic development, departmental reviews and management, and the degree of attention of local governments constituted the impact mechanism driving the evolution of China's national garden cities.