斯堪的纳维亚半岛及周边地区城镇发展适宜性评价

城镇发展适宜性研究有助于了解城镇发展的优势条件,为确定城镇建设规划的扩展方向提供依据。在北极与亚北极开展研究对中国开展在城镇化、重大基础设施、廊道建设方面的国际合作有重大意义。本文使用多源数据,在采样的基础上利用逐步法的思想进行变量筛选,共筛选出5个显著指标,用logistic方法拟合出最终的模型进行城镇发展适宜性评价,最终得到研究区城镇发展适宜性分级图。研究结果表明：筛选后的显著指标对研究区城镇分布的影响作用大小排序为,温度（正向）、交通网密度（正向）、海拔高度（反向）、人口密度（正向）、距港口距离（反向）;温度、交通网密度、海拔高度、人口密度、距最近港口距离增加1个单位,城镇发展的几率分别比原来增加了38.4%、16.7%、9%、0.4%、0.1%;研究区的Ⅰ（不适宜）、Ⅱ（中度适宜）、Ⅲ（高度适宜）的城镇发展适宜性均值分别为0.03、0.16、0.68（分别约占研究区总面积的76.82%、21.82%、1.37%）;城镇发展适宜性总体呈现出随纬度升高而降低、随经度升高而增加的趋势,适宜城镇发展的气候地理条件是温带大陆性湿润气候带和温带海洋性气候带以及平原与低地地区;研究区的城镇发展适宜性俄罗斯西北部为0.08、瑞典为0.07、芬兰为0.06、挪威为0.03。俄罗斯西北部城镇发展适宜性整体上呈现出北低南高,南部呈现两边高中间低的空间布局;瑞典呈现出西北低东南高,沿海大于内陆的空间布局;芬兰呈现出北（高原）低南（沿海）高,中部次高的空间布局;挪威呈现出南部沿海高,西部沿海次高,其他区域低的空间布局。

A Suitability Evaluation of Urban Development in Scandinavian Peninsula and Surrounding Areas

The study of urban development suitability is used for understanding the advantageous conditions of urban development, provides evidence for determining the expansion direction of town development project. Research in the arctic and the sub-arctic is of great significance for China's international cooperation in urbanization, major infrastructure and corridor construction. This article using multi-source data, on the basis of samplingpoints, 5 significant indicators were selected after filtering variables with the idea of stepwise method, the final logistic model was used to assess the suitability of urban development. Finally, the classified map of suitability of urban development was got. Finally, we get the classified map of suitability of urban development in study area. The result show that the ranking of significant indicators is, temperature (forward), traffic network density (forward), altitude (reverse), population density (forward), distance to nearest port (reverse). The above factors increase by 1 unit, the probability of urban development increased by 38.4%, 16.7%, 9%, 0.4%, and 0.1% respectively; The overall suitability of urban development shows a trend of decreasing with increasing latitude and it shows a trend of increasing with increasing longitude. The climatic and geographical conditions suitable for urban development are cool summer humid continental climates zone (Dfb, abbreviation in Koppen Climate Classification)and temperate oceanic climates zone (Cfb) with plains and lowland regions; The suitability of urban development in the study area sorted from the largest to the smallest is 0.08 in northwestern Russia, 0.07 in Sweden, 0.06 in Finland and 0.03 in Norway. The overall suitability of urban development in northwestern Russia is low in northern area and high in southern area. Sweden presents a trend that is low suitability in northwest area along with high suitability in southeast area, and suitability of coast is greater than that of inland. The suitability of Norway presents a spatial layout that is higher in the western coast, highest in the southern coast and low in other regions.