市场相似性与中国制造业出口市场的空间演化路径

基于扩展引力模型和演化经济地理理论,利用2002-2011年中国海关数据库,采用核密度分布和计量经济模型等方法,考察中国城市出口市场的空间演化路径及其微观机制。基于共存分析方法测算的国家间市场相似度在方法上有所创新,将演化经济地理研究中的“路径”成功量化。全国样本的研究结果表明：城市和企业两个层面的演化路径证明了扩展引力模型的基本结论,说明与过去出口市场相似度越高的国家,被城市和企业扩展为新市场的概率越大,证实了中国出口市场的空间演化是遵循路径依赖的。此外,还发现城市与企业之间的协同演化过程：东部城市表现出路径突破,而企业层面的能力可能是城市路径突破的重要来源;同时,城市层面的知识溢出对企业市场演化有显著的正向影响。总之,城市与企业之间相互影响、协同演化是中国出口市场空间演化的重要机制。

Market similarity and the evolutionary path of China's export market expansion

Based on the extended gravity model and evolutionary economic geography, this paper uses Kernel density distribution and econometric models to investigate the path of export market expansion in urban China and its micro-mechanism at the firm level by using 2002-2011 China Customs Database. To quantify the evolutionary path of export market expansion, this paper measures the inter-national market similarity based on the co-occurrence analysis and then calculates the market similarity between export destinations and firms' (or cities') export market network, which is used as an important explanatory variable in the econometric models. The results show that the market that is more similar to cities or firms' previous destinations is more likely to be expanded as a new destination, implying that cities' and firms' export market expansion in China presents the pattern of path dependence. This study also examines the co-evolution of cities' and firms' market expansion. The city-level evolution in the east is path created, which may derive from firms' path dependence. Knowledge spillover effect within the same city plays a significantly positive role in the firms' market evolution. Therefore, the co-evolution of cities' and firms' market expansion is the key mechanism of export market expansion path in China.