“一带一路”倡议下欧亚大陆陆海运输的空间均衡分析

在“一带一路”背景下,解析欧亚大陆陆海运输成本竞合基础上形成的空间均衡格局,是兼具理论与现实意义的重大经济地理问题。以北京和柏林为欧亚大陆两端终点,基于现有铁路路网,采用可达性分析方法,构建了陆海运输空间均衡分析模型,勾划出了欧亚大陆陆海运输平衡线,理清了“一带一路”背景下欧亚大陆的陆海运输空间竞合格局。研究发现,仅比较运费成本时,海运运输方式具有绝对优势,陆海运输平衡线沿俄罗斯近波罗的海区域—哈萨克斯坦—土库曼斯坦—塔吉克斯坦—中国西北部—蒙古—俄罗斯远东地区,将欧亚大陆划分为占比约1∶2的陆海运输空间竞合格局;考虑时间成本后,陆海运输空间竞合的平衡线向沿海地区明显推移,以德国柏林—黑海北岸—里海南岸—土耳其—青藏高原—中国宝鸡—大兴安岭—俄罗斯丘米坎为界,陆海运输基本形成了占比约1∶1的空间均衡态势。上述基于陆海运输成本角度的欧亚大陆陆海运输平衡线,与地缘政治学中陆权论和边缘地带论的相关结果在空间上高度吻合。基于此,本文进一步给出了欧亚大陆内陆区（陆运优势区）、海洋区（海运优势区）和陆海复合区的空间分区方案。由此,陆海运输空间均衡关系的综合分析可以成为探讨欧亚大陆地缘政治与经济空间格局的新视角,并为“一带一路”倡议的实施提供扎实的地理学科学基础。

The spatial balance pattern between land and sea transport in Europe-Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative

In the context of the Belt and Road Initiative, the analysis of Eurasian land and sea transport spatial equilibrium pattern which is formed on the basis of cost coopetition is an important economic and geographic topic with both theoretical and practical significance. This article takes Beijing and Berlin as destinations on the two sides of Europe-Asia and, on the basis of existing rail networks and maritime data, adopts accessibility analysis to build a land and sea transport spatial equilibrium analysis model. Using this model, this study draws balance lines for land and sea transport in Eurasia in order to clarify patterns of Eurasian land and sea transport spatial coopetition in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative. This study shows that: (1) When only transportation costs are compared, sea transport holds an absolute advantage, while the balance line for land and sea transport passes through Russia along the Baltic Sea coastal region-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Tajikistan-Northwest China-Mongolia-the Russian Far East. Herein, the spatial coopetition pattern between land and sea transport divides Eurasia into an equilibrium pattern described by a 1∶2 ratio. (2) While considering time costs, balance line shifts distinctly toward coastal regions, following the route Berlin-north coast of the Black Sea-Turkey-Tibetan Plateau-Baoji, China-Da Hinggan Prefecture, China-Chumikan, Russia. Here, the coopetition pattern between land and sea transport forms a balance posture by a 1∶1 ratio. (3) The above Eurasian land and sea transport balance lines share a strong spatial similarity with the corresponding results of the geopolitical theories of land power theory and rimland theory. This indicates an inherent common regularity in Eurasian geo-economic and geopolitical spatial differentiation. On this basis, this paper proposes a spatial division scheme for Eurasian inland area (land transport advantage zone), sea area (sea transport advantage zone) and land-and-sea area. As such, a comprehensive analysis of the spatial equilibrium relationship of land and sea transport may become a new perspective for exploring geopolitical and economic spatial patterns in Eurasia, and provide a solid geoscientific basis for the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.